Eighty-three thousand to 190,000 people in Africa could die of COVID-19 and 29 million to 44 million could get infected in the first year of the pandemic if containment measures fail, says World Health Organization or WHO Office for Africa.
The new study based on prediction modelling, looks at 47 countries in the WHO African region with a total population of one billion.
The estimates are based on modifying the risk of transmission and disease severity by variables specific to each country in order to adjust for the unique nature of the region.
The predicted number of cases that would require hospitalization would overcome the available medical capacity in many African countries, the study cautioned.
While COVID-19 likely won’t spread as exponentially in Africa as it has elsewhere in the world, it likely will smoulder in transmission hotspots,’ said Dr Matshidiso Moeti, the WHO Regional Director for Africa.
He added that ‘COVID-19 could become a fixture in our lives for the next several years unless a proactive approach is taken by many governments in the region. We need to test, trace, isolate and treat.’
WHO Director for Africa said ‘The importance of promoting effective containment measures is ever more crucial, as sustained and widespread transmission of the virus could severely overwhelm our health systems’.
He cautioned that ‘curbing a large scale outbreak is far costlier than the ongoing preventive measures governments are undertaking to contain the spread of the virus’.
Dr Moeti announced these new projections during the WHO Africa Media Leader virtual press conference on Wednesday held with the support of the World Economic Forum.